Bad luck? Read this

[Sangel]

Not only that! He made the AI so smart that, it changes the RNG without affecting statistical analysis! So even if you calculate the probability of getting what you got, it seems reasonable, even though it isn't. We've uncovered a massive conspiracy!

This explains everything - after all, doesn't everyone report that the AI seems to be supernaturally lucky where it matters the most? By cheating only at the most brilliant moments, the AI can cripple the player without noticeably affecting the results of statistical analysis. Pure brilliance!

[Captain_Wrathbow]

How come nobody figured this out before?!

I feel an idea for a campaign coming forth...
The actual characters and units themselves in wesnoth rise up against the corrupt and evil RNG. The RNG's job was to keep everything in the game balanced, but the AI hacked the RNG so it is evil now, and the devs have no idea about it, so the characters and units of wesnoth have to defeat the evil RNG and AI so they can return balance to their world and get revenge on the devs who trapped them in the game! And at the end all the wesnoth characters come out of the game into real life and take over the world!

[Dunno]

...
and it's all thanks to my thread

[Captain_Wrathbow]

Well, it's actually more thanks to Gambit and the link in his signature.

[Lastmerlin]

I will take this chance to make a comment I intended to write since quite a while already. I hope that you will consider it as interesting even though the thread has moved from serious comments to jokes already.

When I started playing Wesnoth (especially campaigns) I experienced the luck factor as extremely frustrating. I study computer science and I have sufficient knowledge of RNG, probability, maths in general to understand that the computer doesn't cheat. That didn't prevent me from beeing annoyed by the RNG regularly.

The problem is, as stated in various threads, that you recognize bad luck events (outcome << EV) more than good luck ones (outcome >> EV), even though the *maths part* of you mind knows better. The point is, that disadvantage due to bad luck is usually much bigger than the advantage by good luck. An example: You get really bad luck and loose you lvl3 loyal unit in a campaign. Ouch. You get good luck an kill one of dozens AI units more efficiently than expected. Not that exciting. In the worst case you will end up with an undesired XP distribution.

Of course it was unfair comparing a major bad luck event to a minor good luck event. Now assume that you do good risk management and achieve, that the first thing occurs very seldom (loosing important unit) while the second one quite often, so that you get a comparable *expected value* of gain or loss, respectively. Still you will the remember the one unlucky loss and forget the many lucky kills. In Wesnoth, bad luck events are much more *coarse-grained*. Specifically, there are no *big* good luck events that outbalance the big bad ones. The expected value of a wesnoth game consists of dozens of small good events (eg. attack worked out as planned, usually not recognized as above EV) and few devastating bad events.

Of course, the above average recognition of bad luck is a psychological problem and a problem of the personality of the player. Nevertheless, I think that this is especially grave for Wesnoth because it has an uneven distribution of luck events that supports and strengthens this effect. I never experienced some similiar frustration let say with settlers von Catan, although Dave might be right that the luck factor is even bigger here. Almost the opposite example is lottery: Although expected value is negative (and therefore participation is completely stupid from a mathmetical point of view), millions of people play lotto - because it has huge wins and small losses. Nobody would join a lottery where almost all people win 5$ per game but a few unlucky ones have to pay a million.
Its not the luck that is the problem, its the distribution.

No, I dont want to propose a change of the system. What I want is:
- Please realisize that those people complaining about are not all stupid, bad at maths and incapable of working with probabilities. I have noticed that there is a mildly arrogant attitude towards such complaints. (btw, please excuse if *arrogant* is a too offensive choice, I am no native speaker). I guess that most of these are not idiots, but they cant explain properly, what their real problem is.
- Realize that Wesnoth just not suits a significant share of potential players. I wont make an estimate here, but I showed it to several people (all of them with good mathematical and analytical abilities) and most replied: The luck factor is frustrating. I think I understood the reason, but I still dont enjoy playing campaigns. Knowledge does not help here. It's a matter of personality whether you like to play the second type lottery. It is perfectly acceptable if you concentrate on those players only - but please dont call the others stupid and be annoyed if they show up on the forum occasionally. Perhaps just tell them that Wesnoth is not the right game for them - in contrast to other games this is not recognized that easily.
- Encourage those complainers to play multiplayer instead of campaigns. Most of the points I made apply to campaings only. For example in 1 vs 1 there are big good events, like a lucky leaderkill.

[Sorrow]

Well said

[Captain_Wrathbow]

Indeed.
Seems that most of it is just a summary of much of what has been previously said, but it is a very good, clear summary.

[Dunno]

In Wesnoth, bad luck events are much more *coarse-grained*. Specifically, there are no *big* good luck events that outbalance the big bad ones.

Not really. Like I said, you should just note down every very lucky event. Here's one: in LoW in the level with yetis my marksman got ambushed by one of yetis on snow (30% or so def) and yeti missed both attacks. Then my marksman hit the poor yeti every time. Then I finished him with a shaman who instantly leveled up. So yeah, there are big good luck events.

[Dave]

I never experienced some similiar frustration let say with settlers von Catan, although Dave might be right that the luck factor is even bigger here.

Ummm seriously? You have never had a game where you watch as the numbers favoring you never seem to be rolled.....you sit there, waiting for your opportunity, then finally several numbers favoring you are rolled in a row.....followed by a seven being rolled which forces you to discard half your cards?

I think it's more likely that assuming you play Catan on a physical board, rather than on a computer, you are being affected by psychological factors which make dice rolls more palatable to humans than computer generated random numbers are.

Realize that Wesnoth just not suits a significant share of potential players

Absolutely. Wesnoth is a game designed by its designers as a game we would enjoy playing. Some people will like it, some won't. There are plenty of other fun games for those who don't like it to play.

David

[multilis]

"Ummm seriously? You have never had a game where you watch as the numbers favoring you never seem to be rolled...."

I have had those, not fun at all either.

The objection I think to Wesnoth is not that it can involve luck but that everyone is *forced* to play on luck every game, rather than game option similar to xp. Game options/patches have been made, but seems impossible to get into mainline without forking complete with different forum/mods.

I personally am very tempted to email google begging them to not accept wesnoth in future into "summer of coding", I personally in version 1.8 r1 didn't see advantage, just buggy changes for example to drakes/multiplayer that require relearning (in effect worse), student's time seems much more useful in other open source projects. (Full reasons would derail this thread)

[Gambit]

just buggy changes for example to drakes/multiplayer that require relearning (in effect worse).

Yeah the drakes new art REALLY screwed up the balance in multiplayer.


Retardery aside, Dave: Any comments on the AI theory?

[multilis]

"screwed up the *balance*"

Luck, user interface, and art have nothing to do with balance, I never mentioned balance.

[AI]

Then what, if anything, did replacing the sprites and animations require you to relearn? 2 (level 2) unit names were changed, everything else remained the same.

[multilis]

Then what, if anything, did replacing the sprites and animations require you to relearn? 2 (level 2) unit names were changed, everything else remained the same.

I will try to start a new thread for this.

[Gambit]

And how is that "buggy"?
Also what "buggy" changes were made to multiplayer?

It'd take time, but you could revert your version to the old sprites without OOS.