## Search found 8 matches

September 25th, 2016, 1:32 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

You're probably under the assumption I'm including the long-term chances to hit, not really. The average damage calculations are tried and true in every game that has ever used dice, per turn, the average expected damage of a unit is what you use to get the best idea of what you're buying. It's not ...
September 25th, 2016, 11:13 am
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

ETA: I'll add one of the initial tests for randomness: I've tossed 200 fair coins and did not find any series of 5 heads in a row. Is this random? Probably not. It probably means someone saw the results, above, and "fixed" it because that run-of-five "should not happen so often!" Then you flip 200 ...
September 25th, 2016, 12:59 am
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

The problem, and it's something I see a lot of places, not just here, is that people insist they understand randomness and probability theory when most do not. It's not that they cannot do the math, it's that they're using the wrong math to begin with. Take the question posed above, "What are the o...
September 24th, 2016, 11:04 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

Then, quick question. Is the chance of flipping heads twice in two coin flips 50%, or 25%?
September 24th, 2016, 10:38 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

it's just that there are more possible combinations that result in 2 heads and 2 tails that define the average. I am already familiar with the concept, and it's been shown in some of the pictures earlier. The link basically just simulates flips and adjusts probability based on your input. You would...
September 24th, 2016, 9:48 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

After consecutive failures the odds of a success increase as the odds of failure decrease, to account for normal distribution of odds and a regression to the mean. It's why you can usually count on a horse hitting an elf in a forest once. And why in the threads shown earlier, the strategy tended to ...
September 24th, 2016, 7:58 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Replies: 26
Views: 5186

### Re: Coding, Terrain Advantage, Damage

This isn't gambler's fallacy. You can confirm it with simulating all of the rolls. Which shouldn't be too hard to do. It'd basically mean, I make a counter box that includes hits after successive failures, run around 1,000 and then draw the results up in a tally. Can't beat hard math. In fact, someo...
September 24th, 2016, 5:07 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips