Discussion of all aspects of multiplayer development: unit balancing, map development, server development, and so forth.
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The issue with a lesser damage marksman is that it makes 18-1 obsolete vs high defense, and a no-brainer vs low defense. Let me explain: (1) If you're attacking a unit on 30/40% would you use your weak marksman, or go for the big 18-1 every time? (2) The reverse applies for engaging a unit on 60/70%, marksman is the clear choice almost every time ... unless you're going for a low-roll CTK with 18-1, in which case why even have a marksman?
The guaranteed 14-1 hit I suggest would adjust its damage according to defense %, so in the end you have a choice EVERY time: A) shoot the big 18-1 and risk it, or B) take your much smaller guaranteed hit. Neither option being clearly superior. Versatility and player choice at its finest.
Of course, if you want to dismiss a uniquely good idea with "nothing is 100%", that's fine. Just keep the Thunderer 18-1 and don't make him more versatile. He's balanced as is.