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by mgwest
August 6th, 2026, 9:08 pm
Forum: Strategies & Tips
Topic: How probable is extreme (un)luck? A mathematical study
Replies: 11
Views: 1398

Re: How probable is extreme (un)luck? A mathematical study

dwarftough's ±200/√n is a large-n result — it leans on the normal approximation, which is the right tool for a whole game's worth of strikes. It's worth spelling out what it implies for the point you made to Tonepoet, though: that a critical moment is short and therefore wide. At small n the ...