combat percentages do not add up

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rondolf
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combat percentages do not add up

Post by rondolf » October 4th, 2012, 4:14 am

I am sure this has been mentioned elsewhere but cannot find it, but it the the human player hits at a lower % than those listed. Not sure if the ai hits at higher. This is not fun. Why would this be done?

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shadowm
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by shadowm » October 4th, 2012, 4:18 am

Those percentages are probabilities, not deterministic hit/miss ratios; this is intentional and part of the game’s design. I suggest you check the “Luck in Wesnoth” link in the “Important links for new users” topic that’s at the top of each forum near the Posting Guidelines.

And no, the AI does not have an inherent advantage in terms of chance to hit. Some specific scenarios may be scripted to give it such an advantage for some story-related purpose, but this is extremely rare.
Author of the unofficial UtBS sequels Invasion from the Unknown and After the Storm.

rondolf
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by rondolf » October 4th, 2012, 6:01 am

Those percentages are probabilities, not deterministic hit/miss ratios
I understand that, but shouldn't the probabilities even out over the course of a game. Because I just got wiped out when I finished 10 poiints below the probability line while the ai finished 7 points above. And the wild swings in combat % are extremely frustrating. A key part in my game came when 2 level 1 ai units killed 4 of my level one units. In one stretch I went 2 for 15 at 60%, the ai 13 for 20 at %50. That sort of thing just kills the joy for me. I know it is a free game and I probably sound a little whiny, but what good is a strategy game if strategy is going to be completely negated by luck. And why would not over the course of a game compiling almost 400 attacks should not the percentages be closer?

AI
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by AI » October 4th, 2012, 7:40 am

The law of large numbers says that as the square root of N increases, the standard deviation decreases. It doesn't mean it *has* to converge though.
As for your units being killed by luck: tactics include making sure that you won't lose anything valueble even if all enemy attacks hit. If you lost 4 units to 2 enemy units, that means you put units in a position where you could lose them. Protect wounded units (by retreating or ZoC) and don't allow the enemy to gang up on units you don't want to lose.

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nuorc
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by nuorc » October 4th, 2012, 8:40 pm

I've even seen rare occurrences of over 100% (in addition) in the damage calculation.

I know how frustrating the RNG can be. If the enemy gets lucky in the beginning, even when statistics level out during the game, sometimes there is just no recovery...
I have a cunning plan.

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Crow_T
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by Crow_T » October 5th, 2012, 9:22 pm

http://forums.wesnoth.org/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=37033

Is a little mod I made- it's not perfect, but *for me* makes the game much more fun.

tuggyne
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by tuggyne » October 8th, 2012, 1:05 am

AI wrote:The law of large numbers says that as the square root of N increases, the standard deviation decreases. It doesn't mean it *has* to converge though.
As for your units being killed by luck: tactics include making sure that you won't lose anything valueble even if all enemy attacks hit. If you lost 4 units to 2 enemy units, that means you put units in a position where you could lose them. Protect wounded units (by retreating or ZoC) and don't allow the enemy to gang up on units you don't want to lose.
This is truth. Most of the higher-end skill in Wesnoth is managing risk — specifically, keeping expected and worst-case losses within acceptable parameters. It's not easy, but it can be done, and when you do well it's rather rewarding.

Huumy
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Re: combat percentages do not add up

Post by Huumy » October 19th, 2012, 1:44 am

Sometimes you still lose because of bad luck, but by playing more games you get better chance of getting closer to the average of bad/good luck. This makes it harder to improve in the game, because the same scenario in two different games could have two different results.

This what also makes the game more interesting and so deep in strategy, there's no way to calculate all the possible outcomes of even a single small skirimish. That's why playing a lot games is a good way to learn intuitively see how the outcome will likely be. But also small scale rearrangements of units are important to gain small edges in battles.

There's lot of things based on luck in wesnoth and there's some fixed values (movement, HP). The beauty of the games is trying to forge a weapon with all of those elements and defeat your opponent with it. There's even so many playstyles you can do, you can try play more luck based if you want, taking big risks with high rewards or you can play more safely trying to minimize the risks.

I really love the system of wesnoth has, it's largely luck based but the deep strategy comes from the thousands different ways of minimizing that luck. Tho, the best players also know when to maximise the luck.

In short the luck what makes wesnoth what it is, sometimes there's no way to win because of bad luck but that's a small flaw in otherwise amazing game mechanics! :)
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