Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

[5dPZ]

Each strike result will modify the chance of hit to its following strike.

the formula is

if the strike hit, the chance for the next strike of the same unit will be:
nexthit% = currenthit% - Terranfactor / # of strikes
if the strike miss, next strike of the same unit will be:
nexthit% = currenthit% + Terranfactor / # of strikes

Terran factor is fixed for the defence unit gets on the terran.
Terran factor = Hit rate * Miss rate * 2
Here's terran factor based on defence:

50% def -> 50%*50%*2 = 50% terran factor
40%/60% -> 40%*60%*2 = 48%
30%/70% -> 30%*70%*2 = 42%
20%/80% -> 20%*80%*2 = 32%
10%/90% -> 10%*90%*2 = 18%
0% / 100% -> 0%*100%*2 = 0%

The idea my formula will work more on 50% terran or some terran close to 50%.
So, if a 5-4 unit attack an enemy on 50% def terran,
each time he hits, his chance to hit in the next strike will reduce by 50%/4= 12.5%
each time he misses, his chance to hit in the next will increase by 12.5%.

Here's a simulation:
First attack will be 50% hit chance. He hits.
Next attack will be 37.5% hit chance. He miss.
Next attack will be back to 50% hit chance. He miss.
Next attack will be 62.5% hit chance - he hits.
So the chance he gets 2 out of 4 attack hit will be greater than current RNG in my system thus the luck has been reduced.

Another case, 8-3 attack on 70% def terran:
First attack will be 30% hit chance, he miss:
Next attack will be 30%+ 42%/3 = 44%, he miss:
his last attack will have 44% + 14% = 58% hit chance.
We can see that there are still luck factor, but much more reduced than current version - we have 30%, 44%, 58% instead of 30%, 30%, 30% if the attackers keep missing.

Also it is balanced for number of strike, the less strike you have, the more modified hit chance you will get for the next hit.

if you have 2 hit on 50% and you miss the first hit, your next (and last) hit rate will raise to 75%. but if you hit the first hit, your next hit rate will drop to 25%. Again, this balance out (aka, reduce luck factor of) the 2-hitters. He will be much more likely to hit 1 out of two hit than current RNG system, but still maintain a small chance of hitting both or missing both (thus keeping the surprise or fun factor of the game).

if we do the math, current if we have 10-2 on 50%, we will have
20 dmg = 25%,
10 dmg = 50%,
0 dmg = 25%.

In my system:
20 dmg = 12.5%;
10 dmg = 75%;
0 dmg = 12.5%.


In case of 10-2 on 70% CTH:
Wesnoth / me
2 hits: 49% / 34.3%
1 hit: 42% / 63% (my number makes more sense, since 70% is closer to 50% than 100%)
0 hits: 9% / 2.7% (my way reduced the double miss chance by more than 3 fold which is nice)

10-2 on 90% CTH (deep water skele for example)
2 hits: 81% / 72.9%
1 hit: 18% / 27%
0 hits: 1% / 0.1%

My aim is to reduce the importance of luck when the unit has less number of strikes (which are more subjective to luck).
also reduce the luck when terran is close to 50%, again the place where luck matter the most.

Any comment are welcome, my idea is to REDUCE luck factor and NOT remove it. Since luck does bring surprise, fun and replay value.

[Noy]

One question before you start.

What is your intent for this thread? Are you planning to make your own fork? If so, thats fine. However if you just want to talk about it, then you might as well forget it. Its never going to be added and there is little point to discuss something that won't happen. I will lock the thread if that is the case.

[Limabean]

great, if you make it i'll play it.
but as Noy said, it probably won't become mainline and I doubt someone else is going to want to make it for you.

good luck

[5dPZ]

Im thinking about it as a game setting.

The current one will be "using game setting".

And the "dynamic hit rate" can be an option same as "turn timer" that can be turned on if players like to reduce luck factors.

[Turuk]

Im thinking about it as a game setting.

That was the whole point of Noy's post. Are you going to actually make a mod to implement this system, or are you just contemplating the various options you might develop into something concrete if you feel like it?

[Noy]

We've discussed this before and its been rejected, so I'm going to lock this thread.