True math RNG... proved! :)

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BadHatHarry
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True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by BadHatHarry » April 1st, 2018, 10:50 pm

Just watched MP game. I could not see poor orcs there - they could not do almost any damage continuosly!

8 turns, 100 HP overall won't inflicted!

Tell me now, that this is mathematically OK and all is good with RNG generator...
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Elder2
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by Elder2 » April 1st, 2018, 11:05 pm

This is mathematically OK and all is good with RNG generator.

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doofus-01
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by doofus-01 » April 2nd, 2018, 3:13 am

Damned Lady Luck! You should have bought a lottery ticket instead of playing Wesnoth, you could have won $20.
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Sudipta
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by Sudipta » April 2nd, 2018, 1:13 pm

I see nothing wrong here :-)
Think of it this way, the chances of you being struck by lightning is almost zero, but every year thousands of people are killed by lightning strikes.
Compared to that, 100 Hp damage not being inflicted is nothing :D
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
Playing Wesnoth since 2010, still there is so much left to play

BadHatHarry
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by BadHatHarry » April 2nd, 2018, 4:07 pm

Main word was 'continuosly'.

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MathBrush
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by MathBrush » April 2nd, 2018, 4:22 pm

It would prove that the RNG is bad if this didn’t show up once in a while. Truly random things are predictable in the long run, and in the long run there is a high probability of getting runs like this.

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shadowm
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by shadowm » April 2nd, 2018, 5:52 pm

Whenever people post things like this I am reminded of this comic.
Author of the unofficial UtBS sequels Invasion from the Unknown and After the Storm.

BadHatHarry
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by BadHatHarry » April 2nd, 2018, 11:33 pm

Okay, let's go to think about it from another side. Imagine that you play as these poor orcs. Intresting gameplay? Want more? Masochist?

As for me - I dont like such games. And it does not matter from which side I am: extra long unluck (rage) or extra luck (lose interest).

I mean if such RNG is possible, okay, no problem. But why suffer only one player? Let's help him and if he was unlucked in one place, immediatly get him luck in another. Go to hell all these math 'long runs'! Ofc with RNG again, but with some modificator that greatly increase his chance to back his luck. And opposite with extra luck - was lucky at one attack? Be ready to miss at another with much more great chance that 'all possibly' math said.

Byron
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by Byron » April 3rd, 2018, 1:29 am

Your problem is revealed in your language. There is no such thing as luck. You are seeing the whole thing as one event; It is actually a series of events. Let's use mages as an example. 3 attacks at 70% is just that: three separate attacks, not one attack. I used to play a variant of Settlers of Catan online, & I would often see ridiculous comment like "sixes aren't being rolled". In probability the past doesn't exist. Whether the mage misses the first attack or hits, is irrelevant to the 70% probability of a hit on the second attack. Some times a white mage will miss four times in a row. People obsess about that, without considering all the times the white mage hit four times in a row. You can not look at such a small sample, & contend that it's representative. I'm not sure of what you are trying to prove, except that you didn't study math in college.

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Inky
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by Inky » April 3rd, 2018, 1:46 am

If I had a drone for every thread complaining about RNG I'd have better security than the Chaos Empire :P :whistle:
BadHatHarry wrote:
April 2nd, 2018, 11:33 pm
I mean if such RNG is possible, okay, no problem. But why suffer only one player? Let's help him and if he was unlucked in one place, immediatly get him luck in another. Go to hell all these math 'long runs'! Ofc with RNG again, but with some modificator that greatly increase his chance to back his luck. And opposite with extra luck - was lucky at one attack? Be ready to miss at another with much more great chance that 'all possibly' math said.
The above system would be really exploitable, for example if I knew that I was "owed" some luck I'd put it to use by making an important attack, such as charging with a horseman or going for the enemy leader. Conversely if I had just hit a bunch and knew I was now going to miss more often, I'd either just retreat or start off by making attacks that don't matter as much.

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Elder2
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Re: True math RNG... proved! :)

Post by Elder2 » April 3rd, 2018, 3:40 pm

dfdfdf.jpg
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Happens xD

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