Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

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Elder2
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Elder2 » January 31st, 2018, 12:50 am

So called luck management is a myth.

Of course if that is what you mean, luck management is a notion that depending on the RNG you are getting at the moment you should expect to get more or less luck in the next fight and therefore you should be going for riskier attacks etc. Or other similiar notions eg that by getting luck in one attack you will not get it in the other.

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Daravel » January 31st, 2018, 1:15 am

Tad_Carlucci wrote: Don't you think you'd still be playing if, every now and then, you'd accidentally sneeze, or kick a wrench you didn't see, only to turn the corner to find the patrolling guard grinning and fingering his blade just before he slips it up under your rib cage?
That depends on whether the accident is my fault or the games arbitrary decision. If I spent 20 minutes using stealth, intuition and skill to infiltrate an enemy base and then I screw up and kick a box across the floor and I get shot - that's totally fine by me (sure, I'll be annoyed in the moment, but I know that my action caused my death. Crucially, I can learn from that and improve). If however the game has simply decided that no, on this occasion, I am going to die and my character randomly trips and falls then I am just going to be frustrated. There is no learning point, no mechanic to master, no fun. I simply just have to restart.

In a multiplayer scenario I am competing against another player (or multiple players). The challenge arises from their skill, initiative and cunning - it shouldn't arise from random chance. That random chance certainly shouldn't determine the outcome of the game. You're right that in a single player game you can 'mathematically' beat the game when there is no chance (which leads to higher difficulty levels cheating to provide the challenge). But in multiplayer the randomness comes from the opponent, chess is the perfect example.

Alas, this is turning into a debate into whether Wesnoth should be luck based or not. My initial point was simply that the OP's friend might benefit from playing another multiplayer game if they get frustrated by luck (whether real or imagined).
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by beetlenaut » January 31st, 2018, 2:25 am

ElderofZion wrote:luck management is a notion that depending on the RNG you are getting at the moment you should expect to get more or less luck in the next fight
That's not what it means--not when experienced players say it anyway. It actually means: Don't put your leader in a position where he has a 10% chance of dying (because you could get bad luck). Don't get into a position where your mage has to hit two out of four or you'll lose half your army (because you might get bad luck). Don't count on good terrain to always keep your meatshields alive (because occasionally it won't). That kind of thing.
Daravel wrote:random chance certainly shouldn't determine the outcome of the game....There is no learning point, no mechanic to master
In another discussion, several high-level ladder players agreed that skill determines the outcome 95% of the time. So, random chance can cause you to lose, but it's rare. Learning to manage luck (like the examples above) is the mechanic to master.
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Byron » January 31st, 2018, 3:07 am

If you want to play a game where random chance is not a factor, then take up chess or go. I spent forty years learning to be a good chess player & I can download a freeware program that can beat Grand Masters. Random chance made me two meters tall, & legally blind. That's life. To have the best chance of succeeding in life you must chose your parents wisely. Oh wait, you don't get to choose? That's not fair!

There is no such thing as luck, only probability. The odds of me rolling a six on a die are one in six, regardless of how many times I've already rolled a six. Probability doesn't know the past.

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Elder2 » January 31st, 2018, 12:07 pm

@beetlenaut The first thing is just called not risking lk. Well I am an experienced player, you can check my ladder and I am not using or have seen other experienced players use this phrase in this way, I have only seen it being used in a way i described, albeit mostly by not so experienced players, but I may have also seen somebody good use it on an occacion or two.

Also your definition makes less sense, there is nothing about managing luck in what you described, it is just not risking getting bad luck, it is only a basic concept of not taking too high risks.

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by pauxlo » February 1st, 2018, 9:46 pm

Maybe the usage of the term luck management changed in the last time, but I also understood it as beetlenaut said.
Knowing when to risk (and how much), and when not to do so. "When" here meaning in which situations, not depending on any estimation of what the next dice throw will be (as – like you said – that working is just a myth).

If you are going to loose anyways by not doing risky stuff, but might have a chance to win when doing so, it is a good idea. Of course it is skill to know when you are in such a situation.

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Elder2 » February 1st, 2018, 11:30 pm

But it doesn't make sense, you aren't managing luck in the situations you described, rather, so to say you are just not expecting to have more of it than you should. Luck itself cannot be managed, you can just increase the chances of something happening or eg decrease the chance of your unit dying to very low or 0.

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Pentarctagon » February 2nd, 2018, 1:35 am

Call it luck minimization if you want then :roll:
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Tad_Carlucci » February 2nd, 2018, 2:45 am

The skill is to be able to proactively create situations where the effect of randomness can be minimized, if not eliminated; or the skill to react to random events to the best advantage.
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Elder2 » February 2nd, 2018, 3:26 am

I actually prefer to call it good play xD

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by UK1 » February 6th, 2018, 1:01 am

No, it is primarily skill based.

There is luck involved. A player who is twice as good as another player could still lose to them, but not often. If you want a very good analysis of how to players compare, it's good to have them play multiple times. For this reason, back in the day that I haunted the multiplayer servers more often, it was considered unsporting to refuse a rematch. Because if two players were relatively equally matched, it was conceivable that luck would often be the deciding factor.

When excellent players play against each other, in my experience, they can go a while without having a very GOOD game. A lot of the times it would be build up, playing chicken with recruiting to keep upkeep low, and maneuvering and waiting for one another to make an error. And you could tell precisely how the game was going to go the turn after the initial clash,

But every once in a while you'd have an amazing game that was a real nail biter. I lived for those.

If your friend would like a more *practical* demonstration of the matter, I'd be more than happy to indulge him.

That said I strongly disagree with how a lot of the other players in this thread seem to be approaching luck. If I am losing or even if I'm simply not winning, I'm fine putting my leader at 10% death risk in a 1v1. If he dies, I lose immediately. There are worse things. If he lives, my opponent has just thrown three units at him that are now hurt that I can probably clean up. In that scenario, I believe it would be the tactical error on the part of the opponent to try to go for the LK.

Getting two or three units beat up without a kill in a 1v1 would itself be a death sentence in many instances. And if your leader does not die that's likely going to be the case. After all, they are effectively (assuming the leader isn't melee and the attackers are all range, which could be even worse for the attacker if they fail) launching three level one attacks and receiving two to three level two attacks back. If your leader doesn't die, that is a solid tradeoff for you.
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by Samonella » February 7th, 2018, 1:06 am

UK1 wrote:If your friend would like a more *practical* demonstration of the matter, I'd be more than happy to indulge him.
:lol: Oh goodness, out of all the snarky replies on this thread this one is the best, I laughed a lot. Perfect response for people complaining about luck.
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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by otzenpunk » February 14th, 2018, 1:17 pm

It's totally normal for games, to depend to luck to a certain degree. And there's a wide range of games from chess (0% luck, 100% strategy) to roulette or lottery (100% luck, 0% strategy). Poker for example is highly luck dependent, however nobody really doubts that there are good and bad poker players, and the good ones usually win. I'd say Wesnoth is a lot less luck dependent than poker. Of course, there are situations, where the RNG really kicks your butt just in a crucial fight, but all in all this game is probably a lot closer to chess than to poker or lottery.

Whoever says, that luck is more important than strategy in this game, is probably just blaming the RNG for his own impatience or lack of talent.

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Re: Is Wesnoth mainly luck and not skill-based?

Post by revolting_peasant » February 22nd, 2018, 11:47 pm

It takes lots of skill to handle the uncertainty of the randomness/luck factor. The skilled player will be able to recover from some spates of bad luck, while the unskilled, over-eager player will often get himself into catastrophic situations by not strategizing properly to account for good and bad luck on both sides.

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