"I survived zerker"

General feedback and discussion of the game.

Moderator: Forum Moderators

Tondo
Posts: 21
Joined: February 28th, 2006, 3:33 pm
Contact:

"I survived zerker"

Post by Tondo »

Hey there,

Originally I wanted to post this in "forum games" section, but couldn't attach the save file there.

I wondered about the possibility of surviving a zerker attack until 30 turns of fighting pass, with both combatants staying alive, in default era with no mods (has anybody else?). If anybody saw this happen, please post the replay (I'm sure as hell that if anybody saw it, they would keep the save :mrgreen: ).

In all likeliness, alas, such miracle has not yet been witnessed. So I tried to think of the best way to arrange it - which I think would be a resilient/healthy ulfserker on a mountain against skeleton archer on another mountain (or other 60% def terrain), fighting melee during day and with both units slowed and then healed to full HP. After applying some math :eng: I arrived at the probability of both units surviving the skirmish - 0.0403%, or about 1 in 2500 runs.

This is too much for a single tester to endure, but not unrealistic, so I decided to turn to distributed computing :) I hereby challenge the wesnoth community to produce and post a replay of berserker attack where both units straight from default era survive 30 turns of combat - with first brave player to do so being honored with the coveted title "Zerker Survivor" :shock:

You can come up with a different scenario if you think it is better, or use my pre-arranged one (download Zerker_ready.gz) with everything set up. Just click attack and watch :)

Hope to see a zerker survivor soon :geek:
Attachments
Zerker_ready.gz
(18.57 KiB) Downloaded 113 times
User avatar
Captain_Wrathbow
Posts: 1664
Joined: June 30th, 2009, 2:03 pm
Location: Guardia

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Captain_Wrathbow »

I am curious if you know how easy it would be to fake such a replay with a little bit of coding. :whistle:
User avatar
Dugi
Posts: 4960
Joined: July 22nd, 2010, 10:29 am
Location: Carpathian Mountains
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Dugi »

Challenge accepted:
Attachments
I_survived_zerker.gz
(14.72 KiB) Downloaded 113 times
User avatar
trewe
Translator
Posts: 122
Joined: December 24th, 2012, 5:37 pm
Location: Portugal
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by trewe »

In 1.6 I had once a female Dark adept who survived an ulfserker (both standing on flat). She was left with 1HP, taken from full health, but sadly backstabbed right away by a thief.

Guess, I will never see such a situation so soon. What is the probability anyway?

But no, I do not have save any more.
User avatar
Unnheulu
Posts: 738
Joined: November 25th, 2007, 4:50 pm
Location: Cymru
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Unnheulu »

I wonder if it would be easier to set this up if the unit versusing the zerker had a drain melee attack.
AI
Developer
Posts: 2394
Joined: January 31st, 2008, 8:38 pm

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by AI »

trewe wrote:In 1.6 I had once a female Dark adept who survived an ulfserker (both standing on flat). She was left with 1HP, taken from full health, but sadly backstabbed right away by a thief.

Guess, I will never see such a situation so soon. What is the probability anyway?

But no, I do not have save any more.
Of that? Less than 1 in a million IIRC.
User avatar
Drakefriend
Posts: 436
Joined: September 27th, 2009, 12:57 pm
Location: Wandering from one world to another
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Drakefriend »

AI wrote:
trewe wrote:In 1.6 I had once a female Dark adept who survived an ulfserker (both standing on flat). She was left with 1HP, taken from full health, but sadly backstabbed right away by a thief.

Guess, I will never see such a situation so soon. What is the probability anyway?

But no, I do not have save any more.
Of that? Less than 1 in a million IIRC.
Somewhere in the "You played Wesnoth for too long when..." thread, I posted some calculation about it. But apparently, I cannot use the search function on the Forum Games section, so I will have to search manually.

PS:I found it.
Drakefriend wrote:950. ...you have seen a Dark Adept survive an Berserker attack at 1 hp and 20% defense.
Elaboration :eng::
For a DA to survive a ulf at full health and 40% defense, it is still as low as 5.7*10^-47, a tough adept at 60% has 4.36*10^-27. Which still would, at one experiment per second, only happen once every 7.3*10^18 years.
After far too long an absence, I have returned.
According to the quiz 100% Silver Mage (85% Archmage, 75% Shyde, 67% Flameheart and Ancient Wose,58% Assassin, Troll Warrior and Berserker). And my top score is exactly how I see myself.
Tondo
Posts: 21
Joined: February 28th, 2006, 3:33 pm
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Tondo »

Heh, obviously I didn't mean this to be a coding exercise. Thx Dugi for posting his scripted fight anyway.

But trewe's post is amazing... if the adept had 33 HP, it could survive 8 hits by non-strong zerker with 4 dmg. The adept standing on 40% def complicates the calculation, lets put him on a 50% def hill so that a hit or a miss is equally likely - then you have about 2^39 fights where zerker gets 8 or less hits, out of total 2^120 possible different fights. So the ratio of survival is 2^39 in 2^120, or 1 in 2^81 fights, which is a staggering number.

The odds are about 1 in 10^24 (=2^81, a million of billions of billions). For 50% that is, for 40% even less. It is unbelievable that you would actually see it happen.

Drakefriend, how did you calculate probabilities for 60 and 40%? I found that a bit difficult :hmm:
User avatar
ancestral
Developer
Posts: 1108
Joined: August 1st, 2006, 5:29 am
Location: Motion City

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by ancestral »

Perhaps the DA was strong and had additional HP. Perhaps it was at night. Perhaps the ’serker wasn’t at full health.
Wesnoth BestiaryPREVIEW IT HERE )
Unit tree and stat browser
CanvasPREVIEW IT HERE )
Exp. map viewer
User avatar
Drakefriend
Posts: 436
Joined: September 27th, 2009, 12:57 pm
Location: Wandering from one world to another
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Drakefriend »

I calculated the probability that a ulfserker (4*30=120 Attacks dealing 4 damage each) hits at least one hit less than lethal, which would be (28/4)-1=6 for the normal DA (and apparently I did miss the bonus HP for eing level one in the case of the robust one, so I would need to recalculate):
p=0.4^114*0.6^6+[acronym=ulf hits five times/115 misses]0.4^115*0,6^5[/acronym]+...+0,4^120
After far too long an absence, I have returned.
According to the quiz 100% Silver Mage (85% Archmage, 75% Shyde, 67% Flameheart and Ancient Wose,58% Assassin, Troll Warrior and Berserker). And my top score is exactly how I see myself.
User avatar
Dunno
Posts: 773
Joined: January 17th, 2010, 4:06 pm
Location: Behind you

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Dunno »

I think that ulf in swamp attacking a ghost has a bigger chance. Your map doesn't have swamp, but ulf on flat vs ghost had 99.1% chance of killing ghost, according to damage calculations. Now, once per 100 sounds doable... :hmm:
Oh, I'm sorry, did I break your concentration?
Ceres
Forum Regular
Posts: 620
Joined: September 18th, 2010, 7:56 pm
Location: Germany

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Ceres »

Drakefriend wrote:p=0.4^114*0.6^6+0.4^115*0,6^5+...+0,4^120
Aren't you forgetting the binomial coefficient? I thought the probability for the ulf to hit six times out of 120 would be 0.4^114*0.6^6[b]*C(120,6)[/b]
User avatar
Drakefriend
Posts: 436
Joined: September 27th, 2009, 12:57 pm
Location: Wandering from one world to another
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by Drakefriend »

Ceres wrote:
Drakefriend wrote:p=0.4^114*0.6^6+0.4^115*0,6^5+...+0,4^120
Aren't you forgetting the binomial coefficient? I thought the probability for the ulf to hit six times out of 120 would be 0.4^114*0.6^6[b]*C(120,6)[/b]
:augh: :doh: :oops: :cry: :(
I know I made some mistake somewhere (although it is still correct for my old example of "could die in one strike".
Correctly calculated, the Dark Adept has a chance to survive of 7.6*10^-38 (DA neither robust nor quick, non-strong ulf, 60% defense, full health).
After far too long an absence, I have returned.
According to the quiz 100% Silver Mage (85% Archmage, 75% Shyde, 67% Flameheart and Ancient Wose,58% Assassin, Troll Warrior and Berserker). And my top score is exactly how I see myself.
User avatar
trewe
Translator
Posts: 122
Joined: December 24th, 2012, 5:37 pm
Location: Portugal
Contact:

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by trewe »

ancestral wrote:Perhaps the DA was strong and had additional HP. Perhaps it was at night. Perhaps the ’serker wasn’t at full health.
DA's can't be strong, and what does the health of the ulf matter :?
Night (but ulf is neutral) and resilient/intelligent DA (33hp). RIP Celya.
Tondo wrote:The odds are about 1 in 10^24 (=2^81, a million of billions of billions). For 50% that is, for 40% even less. It is unbelievable that you would actually see it happen.
yeah, was astonished too. Will never forget it.


Sadly the save is lost.
User avatar
cKomuHKa
Posts: 29
Joined: July 20th, 2012, 8:45 pm
Location: Russia

Re: "I survived zerker"

Post by cKomuHKa »

What about a failure of random numbers generator?
Post Reply