## Wesnoth probability calculator

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Tondo
Posts: 15
Joined: February 28th, 2006, 3:33 pm
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### Wesnoth probability calculator

Hi,

This is a crude probability calculator for Wesnoth I doodled at work, I thought I'd post it here.

See if you like it or if it is any help at playing or at least settling disputes about good/bad luck.

Enjoy,

Tondo
Attachments
Wesnoth chance 100 v1.02 RTP.ods
Wesnoth probability calculator

tr0ll
Posts: 528
Joined: June 11th, 2006, 8:13 pm

### Re: Wesnoth probability calculator

that certainly shows the value of using terrain!
cautions:
- the table will be off if any of the attackers are marksmen or magic.
- assumes the target unit has infinite HP. if you kill the unit on the 1st hit, the rest of the strikes are wasted, so players shouldnt necessarily count on needing that many units to win a particular fight. this is where other factors like leadership, time of day, slow, resistance (weapon+unit+steadfast) come in.

Aelaris
Posts: 77
Joined: January 21st, 2010, 3:22 am

### Re: Wesnoth probability calculator

Actually, the table is off if the units have different attacks. Accuracy is one thing, but hit threshold doesn't take into account the difference between a Wose hitting a unit and a Elvish Scout hitting a unit. To kill, say, an Elvish Shaman, let's have a Wose and two scouts attack. It dies in two hits of a wose, one wose-hit and three scout hits, or six scout hits.

So what's the hit threshold?

I feel that comparing different units is sort of beyond the scope of his build here.

The question of how many units are needed is something you can break down by running multiple threshold calculations, and comparing the numbers. I'll do it:

Elvish Fighters (5-4 attack) VS Spearman (36HP) on flat terrain (40%)
Threshold is 8 hits (40 damage > 36 HP > 35 damage)

Two elvish fighters = 1.6% chance to kill
Three elvish fighters = 43% chance to kill, 1.6% chance you'll have one extra.
Four elvish fighters = 85% chance to kill, 41.4% chance you'll have one extra, 1.6% you'll have two extra.
And so forth.

All the bonuses, you'll just have to math into the hit threshold, but it's fine as long as they are all the same.