Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

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5dPZ
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Joined: July 11th, 2006, 7:20 pm
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

Post by 5dPZ » February 4th, 2009, 1:45 am

Each strike result will modify the chance of hit to its following strike.

the formula is

if the strike hit, the chance for the next strike of the same unit will be:
nexthit% = currenthit% - Terranfactor / # of strikes
if the strike miss, next strike of the same unit will be:
nexthit% = currenthit% + Terranfactor / # of strikes

Terran factor is fixed for the defence unit gets on the terran.
Terran factor = Hit rate * Miss rate * 2
Here's terran factor based on defence:

50% def -> 50%*50%*2 = 50% terran factor
40%/60% -> 40%*60%*2 = 48%
30%/70% -> 30%*70%*2 = 42%
20%/80% -> 20%*80%*2 = 32%
10%/90% -> 10%*90%*2 = 18%
0% / 100% -> 0%*100%*2 = 0%

The idea my formula will work more on 50% terran or some terran close to 50%.
So, if a 5-4 unit attack an enemy on 50% def terran,
each time he hits, his chance to hit in the next strike will reduce by 50%/4= 12.5%
each time he misses, his chance to hit in the next will increase by 12.5%.

Here's a simulation:
First attack will be 50% hit chance. He hits.
Next attack will be 37.5% hit chance. He miss.
Next attack will be back to 50% hit chance. He miss.
Next attack will be 62.5% hit chance - he hits.
So the chance he gets 2 out of 4 attack hit will be greater than current RNG in my system thus the luck has been reduced.

Another case, 8-3 attack on 70% def terran:
First attack will be 30% hit chance, he miss:
Next attack will be 30%+ 42%/3 = 44%, he miss:
his last attack will have 44% + 14% = 58% hit chance.
We can see that there are still luck factor, but much more reduced than current version - we have 30%, 44%, 58% instead of 30%, 30%, 30% if the attackers keep missing.

Also it is balanced for number of strike, the less strike you have, the more modified hit chance you will get for the next hit.

if you have 2 hit on 50% and you miss the first hit, your next (and last) hit rate will raise to 75%. but if you hit the first hit, your next hit rate will drop to 25%. Again, this balance out (aka, reduce luck factor of) the 2-hitters. He will be much more likely to hit 1 out of two hit than current RNG system, but still maintain a small chance of hitting both or missing both (thus keeping the surprise or fun factor of the game).

if we do the math, current if we have 10-2 on 50%, we will have
20 dmg = 25%,
10 dmg = 50%,
0 dmg = 25%.

In my system:
20 dmg = 12.5%;
10 dmg = 75%;
0 dmg = 12.5%.


In case of 10-2 on 70% CTH:
Wesnoth / me
2 hits: 49% / 34.3%
1 hit: 42% / 63% (my number makes more sense, since 70% is closer to 50% than 100%)
0 hits: 9% / 2.7% (my way reduced the double miss chance by more than 3 fold which is nice)

10-2 on 90% CTH (deep water skele for example)
2 hits: 81% / 72.9%
1 hit: 18% / 27%
0 hits: 1% / 0.1%

My aim is to reduce the importance of luck when the unit has less number of strikes (which are more subjective to luck).
also reduce the luck when terran is close to 50%, again the place where luck matter the most.

Any comment are welcome, my idea is to REDUCE luck factor and NOT remove it. Since luck does bring surprise, fun and replay value.

Noy
Inactive Developer
Posts: 1321
Joined: March 13th, 2005, 3:59 pm

Re: Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

Post by Noy » February 4th, 2009, 2:18 am

One question before you start.

What is your intent for this thread? Are you planning to make your own fork? If so, thats fine. However if you just want to talk about it, then you might as well forget it. Its never going to be added and there is little point to discuss something that won't happen. I will lock the thread if that is the case.
I suspect having one foot in the past is the best way to understand the present.

Don Hewitt.

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Limabean
Posts: 350
Joined: August 26th, 2008, 2:14 pm
Location: New Hampshire, USA

Re: Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

Post by Limabean » February 4th, 2009, 3:23 am

great, if you make it i'll play it. :wink:
but as Noy said, it probably won't become mainline and I doubt someone else is going to want to make it for you.

good luck
When a scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
-Arthur C. Clarke-

5dPZ
Posts: 198
Joined: July 11th, 2006, 7:20 pm
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Re: Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

Post by 5dPZ » February 4th, 2009, 3:33 am

Im thinking about it as a game setting.

The current one will be "using game setting".

And the "dynamic hit rate" can be an option same as "turn timer" that can be turned on if players like to reduce luck factors.

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Turuk
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Re: Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

Post by Turuk » February 4th, 2009, 3:45 am

5dPZ wrote:Im thinking about it as a game setting.
That was the whole point of Noy's post. Are you going to actually make a mod to implement this system, or are you just contemplating the various options you might develop into something concrete if you feel like it?
Mainline Maintainer: AOI, DM, NR, TB and THoT.
UMC Maintainer: Forward They Cried, A Few Logs, A Few More Logs, Start of the War, and Battle Against Time

Noy
Inactive Developer
Posts: 1321
Joined: March 13th, 2005, 3:59 pm

Re: Dynamic Hit Rate System - reduce luck in wesnoth

Post by Noy » February 4th, 2009, 3:51 am

We've discussed this before and its been rejected, so I'm going to lock this thread.
I suspect having one foot in the past is the best way to understand the present.

Don Hewitt.

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